Thursday, January 8. 2009
One year ago I made the predictions for 2008, now it is time to
recap:
Again there is no momentum for startups to get to fast
track: lack of seasoned management, hard to monetize with high traffic
sites. Most chased consumer entertainment services and few startups
target enterprise apps SaaS and click and mortar hybrid that have more
sustainable revenue model.
My predictions for 2008:
Social Media:
* Many new startups will be launched
until mid year then some quit of exhausting. [Right: 2nd half 2008 saw
few new startups, VC Corp quit Facebook clone game (Zoomban)]
*
Some large tech companies such as FPT, CMC will opt for acquisition
instead of in-house development. [Wrong: FPT launch its own incubator
(Visky) and the FPT chairman takes care of these projects. I think it
was not a good choice.]
* Self hosted Wordpress based blogs are
increasing popular. [Quite true.]
* Active Yahoo360 accounts
will drop 50% [Right: rumor of Yahoo SE Asia shutting down Yahoo360
service.]
Search Service:
* No local
player can challenge the Google' dominant position. [Official launch of
local search service xalo.vn, no bright future for this search
engine.]
Online Gaming:
* WOW will be
exploring the market through Asian affiliate. [The local market was
ready for WOW, I did not know why Blizzard Entertainment still did not
enter this promising game land.]
* Audition Online is still the
top casual MMO. [Audition rocked again.]
Mobile:
* iPhone would be the top choice of wish list among local
professionals and Vietnam would be the largest market of iPhone in
Southeast Asia with sales of 200K to 250K of units end of the year 2008.
[iPhone was truly a hit in Vietnam mobile market, without software based
unlock solution iPhone 3G was a bit slow demand, but the number was
still about 200k.]
* No one remembers DVB-H ever in existence.
[What did DVB-H mean?]
* Wimax is still in testing and not a
commodity until yearend. [Did Intel still bullish on Wimax this
year?]
Investment:
* Some international
VC firms will enter Vietnam market in addition to incumbent IDGVV, DFJ Vina. [Softbank China and
India Holdings is an important player now.]
* Local VC and
angels network will be formed to get a piece of the pie. [Not a clear
trend in Vietnam, but some practice in existence.]
I will
make the predictions for 2009 in next couple of days.
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